The People's House

(from theobamadiary.com)

(from theobamadiary.com)

Love It!

(from theobamadiary.com)

Republicans

Orpheus in Greenwich Village

By Jack Gilbert

What if Orpheus,

confident in the hard-

found mastery,

should go down into Hell?

Out of the clean light down?

And then, surrounded

by the closing beasts

and readying his lyre,

should notice, suddenly,

they had no ears?

I think abut Republicans a lot. I have concluded that our current legislative lot are much like the beasts Orpheus discovered in Hell - they have no ears for his, or anyone else's music. And they are bloody dangerous with their thrashing about.

Our only choice is to throw them completely out. November, 2014 is the time.

I am angry today. The GOP's relentless hammering of Secretary Sebelius is the cause. I know politics is a blood sport, but real warriors have clear value codes, such as Honor Your Adversary. The GOP has completely forgotten all of this.

Next November. Payback.

I will try to rediscover my "clear and quiet eyes" perspective tomorrow.

"We Will See This Through!"

The President's speech today in Boston. Obama comes on about 14:30, But Gov. Deval Patrick's remarks are worth hearing.

Republicans should pay attention. This guy is determined.

And I completely believe him.

This Approach Will Backfire

My prediction: this will backfire. Americans don't like dismissive, rude harassment of their public officials. Secretary Sebelius has never sought the spotlight; she has been doing her level best to serve the country, to bring affordable healthcare to all Americans. She does not deserve this level of disrespect. Agree or disagree with the ACA policy, Kathleen Sebelius deserves better than being interrogated as an enemy combatant. 

By Next June

Where will we be by next June? Will the ACA be deemed a success? Will Congress have negotiated a budget? Will Immigration reform have passed? Will the Republicans civil war still be underway? What do the Democrats chances look like for retaking the House in November? I find that asking myself questions that include a longer time horizon help me crystallize my thoughts. So here's where I come out, at least for now:

• The ACA will be a success, and possibly a great success. The website problems will be behind us. Somewhere between six and ten million people will have signed up for health insurance on the Exchanges. From 7 to 10 million people will also have been added to the Medicaid rolls. Here is the key item: the under 35 group will have signed up in sufficient numbers to ensure a stable risk pool in the insurance exchanges. The political storm over almost 3million people losing their individual coverage, and having to buy sometimes more expensive policies on the Exchanges, is behind us (These are the people whose insurance companies adjusted their policies in the last three years, causing them to lose their grandfathered status.) There has been no noticeable or general diminution of the quality of healthcare delivery, and the attention has shifted to those states that did not accept the Medicaid expansion. People in those states with incomes between 100% and 138% of FPL, are not able to join Medicaid or to get subsidies for buying insurance on the Exchanges. This has gotten a lot of media attention, causing problems for Republican legislators and governors. It looks like this will be a big and winning issue for Democrats in the coming elections.
• Contrary to early expectations, a budget deal was finally reached just before Christmas. The sequester was cancelled and replaced with a combination of spending cuts, modest entitlement reform (chained CPI for Social Security, means testing for Medicare) and new tax revenues (closing loopholes). Like the vote to reopen the Government in October, the Budget vote passed with both Democratic and Republican votes. Conservatives (Tea Party) were outraged and vowed to aggressively press primary opposition to the "establishment turncoats". Obama has essentially achieved the basic deal he offered Boehner in the summer of 2011 - tax revenues ($1.0-$1.2 trillion over ten years) and $2.8-$3.0 trillion in spending cuts, totaling the original Bowles-Simpson target of $4.0 trillion - with a big difference: he also got the tax hike on the wealthy that would not have occurred if Boehner had taken the 2011 deal. The MSM has figured this out, and more commentators are questioning the "Obama is a terrible negotiator" meme.
• Immigration reform, including a path to citizenship, has not passed. A group of moderate Republicans broke ranks and signed on as cosponsors to the Senate bill; but it was not enough. Conservatives rallied aggressively and Boehner refused to call a vote.
• The intra-GOP battle is in full swing. All the major GOP leadership are being primaried. Heritage Action, Club for Growth and other Conservative super-PACs are pouring in money to defeat the "turncoats". The hard Right is incensed about the mainstream Republican surrender on Obamacare and then on taxes. Talk is being heard of a Third Party 2016 candidate, unless Conservatives can knock out GOP legislative leadership in the very-soon-arriving primaries.
• Democrats are confident that they will hold the Senate and think they have better than en even chance to retake the House. GOP infighting, residual public anger over the shutdown, the emerging big success of Obamacare, and the failure of Congress to pass Immigration reform have combined to create, quite possibly, a "perfect storm" - a wave election sweeping Republicans out of office.

Those are my forecast. I'm least confident about my Budget/New Tax Revenue prediction. But I am quite sure three of the first four predictions will happen - fully supporting the possible wave election forecast in the last bullet point.

In short - I believe the Democrats will hold the Senate and retake the House. And in 2015 Obama will complete his agenda: Immigration reform; Cap and Trade, or an equivalent measure to control carbon emissions and greenhouse gases; a $9 minimum wage; modest gun control (background checks); and significant job-creating public investment (infrastructure, green energy, manufacturing enterprise hubs).

And 2016 is beginning to look like a Hillary Clinton landslide!

ACA Update

Above is a picture of Jeffrey Zients, Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), who has been assigned by President Obama to fix the ACA website mess. Today he held a conference call with reporters and gave (according to numerous sources) a clear, detailed summary of what has gone wrong. He has appointed software developer QSSI, architect of the ACA federal data hub (up and running well), to be the General Project Contractor (as opposed to HHS playing that role, as they have up until now). Zients said the healthcare.gov site will be up and running effectively by the end of November.

I'm inclined to believe him. He's been a successful problem-solver for the President: The Washington Post called him President Obama's "weed-wacker". Meanwhile, GOP pundits are announcing ruin. Here's Peggy Noonan at the WSJ:

We should not lose The Headline in the day-to-day headlines. This is big history, not small. The ObamaCare rollout is a disaster for the White House, not a problem or a challenge or an embarrassment, not a gaffe or a bad few weeks. It is a political disaster...

Here's Kim Strassel, also of the WSJ:

After 16 long days of vowing to Republicans that they would not cave in any way, shape or form on ObamaCare, Democrats spent their first post-shutdown week caving in every way, shape and form. With the GOP's antics now over, the only story now is the unrivaled disaster that is the president's health-care law.

The picture is not pretty right now, and it's going to get worse before it turns the corner. Many, most likely millions of people who have carried bare bones policies on the individual market, are going to get their policy cancellation notices and told that their policies are not ACA compliant. About 14 million people buy individual insurance and probably half of these folks have minimal coverage policies that have been adjusted in the last 3 years (since ACA was passed) and therefore are not "grandfathered". This is where premium "sticker shock" will be real, especially for single people earning over $30,000, and therefore not entitled to significant subsidies.

Sticker shock is one thing. But what happens if there is no way for them to sign up by December 15, for coverage beginning January 1, and avoid a gap in coverage? A very real problem that we will hear much alrarum about in coming days. My conclusion: there will be a fix, if needed, probably by HHS extending the date out 3-6 months for when all policies must be compliant; then insurance companies can issue policy extension riders to their customers. But it will get very noisy.

Will Democrats abandon the ACA ship and team up with the GOP to delay the individual mandate? No. They will (and already are) asking for an extension of the open enrollment period beyond March 31, 2014. They may even ask for a reduction (even elimination) of the Year 1 penalty (currently $95), but they will not ask for a delay in the mandate itself.

These may be good weeks coming up for the GOP. The Obamacare House may be appearing to break apart. Just hang tight. This will pass. Obamacare will make it through this part of the storm.

The only real and substantive question is: When will we know if the under 35s' are signing up? This is the core of the Conservative argument against Obamacare's economic structure. I have argued the "young" will sign up. Conservatives are ferocious in their disagreement. I think we will start getting numbers soon. For a really clear picture, we might have to wait until Christmas.

But remember: the under 35s' signed up in Massachusetts, albeit not quickly, and the penalties were modest, similar to what has been laid out in the ACA.

As ever, count me an optimist.