|(compiled by author from Google)|
Obama won in 2008 and 2012 with Minorities, Millenials, Unmarried Women and Professionals (what Ruy Texeira and John Judis call the "Rising American Electorate"). In 2010, these folks stayed home, and Democrats were clobbered. What can we learn from Virginia, comparing yesterday to the race for Governor in 2009 about who might show up next November? Here's what the comparative demographics suggest to me:
My conclusion: Make 2014 about Obamacare and Immigration (even if, by some miracle, serious Immigration reform is done before election day). If we do, Minorities will show up and Dems will win - not everywhere, but in enough places to retake the House.